ECHOROCK RESEARCH · ECONOMY

The U.S. Economy

Current analysis of the indicators and forces shaping the economic outlook — with current readings, historical context and research in one place.

OVERVIEW SNAPSHOT

The economy at a glance.

Six core areas summarize the current economic picture before you move into the underlying indicators.

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ECHOROCK ECONOMIC BRIEFINGS

The latest economic research, in one place.

The Economic Brief explains new data as it arrives, keeps the broader cross-category picture visible, and shows what comes next.

ECONOMIC BRIEF Research note Publishes when tracked data changes

The latest economic data, distilled.

What changed in the data, what it means for the economic picture, and the next releases that matter.

GrowthLaborInflationRates
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The data behind the outlook.

Indicators are organized by economic category. Select any indicator to open its full history, graph, table and definition without leaving the Economy page.

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ECHOROCK MODEL

A fast read on where the economy sits in the cycle.

The model is a six-stage economic-risk framework. It is built to separate normal monthly noise from weakness that is becoming persistent and broad enough to matter.

What it measures

Whether stress is spreading across real activity, labor and financial conditions — and whether those signals are confirming one another. The output runs from Expansion to Contraction; it is not a short-term stock-market signal.

Why these indicators

Each input covers a different part of the cycle: Industrial Production for real activity; unemployment and jobless claims for labor deterioration; the 10Y–3M curve for prior monetary and financing pressure; Baa credit spreads for market confirmation; and the Sahm rule for late labor confirmation.

Why not use everything?

More indicators do not automatically make a better model. The model favors a small set of distinct signals, persistence tests and cross-confirmation so one noisy release cannot move the regime by itself.

View Regime History → Open full Model Guide

Analytical framework only — not a recession declaration, probability forecast or investment recommendation.