What is the model telling us right now?
The current stage summarizes how Growth, Labor, the yield curve and credit are lining up.
This commentary explains the model’s current classification without changing any rule or threshold.
ECHOROCK MODEL · CURRENT REGIME
The framework moves through six stages as economic stress builds. The current stage is highlighted below, followed by the full monthly history.
Stage 1Expansion
Stage 2Vulnerable Expansion
Stage 3Slowdown
Stage 4Elevated Risk
Stage 5High Risk
Stage 6Broad Contraction Confirmation
CURRENT MODEL READExpansion continues; the model is monitoring vulnerability rather than signaling contraction.
CURRENT MODEL INTERPRETATION
Data through latest complete month
Explanation layer · does not change the model
REGIME HISTORY
The monthly path through the framework.
Select any month to inspect the signals behind that stage.
Monthly model stage
NBER recession shading
Loading regime history…
Reading the final model historical feed and production recent history.
SOURCE CONTINUITY CHECK
Historical source needs attention
A month is missing from the underlying audit trail.
This is the model’s historical research view using the current final architecture and historical data available in the audit trail. Because economic data can be revised, this is not the same thing as the separate real-time/vintage replay used during validation.
INTERPRETATION
What does “Growth + Labor Stress” mean?
This is the model’s main real-economy signal. Growth is measured primarily with Industrial Production, while Labor combines Unemployment and Initial Jobless Claims. The model does not escalate the regime because of one weak report — it looks for weakness to persist.
READING GUIDE What do the status labels mean? Open guide
StableThis area is not showing meaningful deterioration.
MixedSome weakness is present, but the full signal is not stressed.
WatchA vulnerability or warning condition is active and deserves attention.
CalmCredit markets are not confirming broad economic stress.
StressedDeterioration is strong enough to meet that component’s stress condition.
WarningA specific warning rule has been triggered.
Clear / NoThat warning condition is not currently active.
Stage 1 → 6Stage 1 is the lowest-risk state; Stage 6 is the strongest broad-contraction confirmation.
MONTHLY AUDIT TRAIL
What was driving the stage?
| Month | Stage | Growth | Labor | Persistent Growth + Labor Stress? | Curve | Credit | Sahm | Recession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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